Deflation is not benign
In an economy where the money supply depends on the production of debt, deflation can never be a good thing. In fact as any cyclist can tell you, deflation means you aren't going anywhere.
More on this here.
The sad story of Maplin Electronics
Last week saw two high-profile corporate failures in the UK. Toys R Us finally went into administration after a stay of execution over Christmas. And private equity firm Rutland Partners pulled the plug on geeky electronics retailer Maplin. Total job losses from both failures amount to something in the region of 5,000 across the whole of the UK.
No-one was particularly surprised by the failure of Toys R Us. The company had proved slow to respond to the rise of online shopping and the trend away from large out-of-town retail outlets in favour of small local shops. In the US, Toys R Us filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (the American equivalent of administration) in September 2017. Despite the American company's insistence that its European operations were not affected, it was almost inevitable that the UK subsidiary would eventually follow suit. British consumers are shifting to online shopping every bit as rapidly as consumers across the Pond, and the trend towards loca…
No-one was particularly surprised by the failure of Toys R Us. The company had proved slow to respond to the rise of online shopping and the trend away from large out-of-town retail outlets in favour of small local shops. In the US, Toys R Us filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (the American equivalent of administration) in September 2017. Despite the American company's insistence that its European operations were not affected, it was almost inevitable that the UK subsidiary would eventually follow suit. British consumers are shifting to online shopping every bit as rapidly as consumers across the Pond, and the trend towards loca…
Not on topic to your post: but I have a question. Why is it that government interest payments as a percent of GDP are not quoted as a figure for understanding the effects of debt levels (flow vs flow scenerio). And why do we not see popularly discussed any theories about why this value may change over time (its velocity)?
ReplyDeleteMaybe you'll say such a figure is unimportant (I have no idea myself). But I think it would be a lot easier for the public to understand, and to frame policy choices about, than the popular debt/gdp framework that has provoked much unenlightened discussion.
I prefer to compare interest cost to gdp, rather than debt/gdp. As you say, it is better to compare like with like. Debt/gdp compares stocks and flows and therefore needs to used with caution, I would say.
DeleteRegarding the problem of deflation increasing the value of outstanding debts. Hypothetically that could be overcome if the credit system was changed and so the value of the debt was constantly recalculated by factoring in the inflation rate, if in reality the money supply effect on prices could really be measured accurately enough to do that though.
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ReplyDelete> Frances
considering your post would you agree that paying off debt increases the value of money, and so not paying off debt decreases the value of money the value of money, and so defaults on debt are inflationary.
No, I would not. Defaulted debts are written off and therefore destroy money in exactly the same way as if they were paid off. In effect, the lender pays the debt from profits. The effect is therefore contractionary. Additionally, widespread debt default destroys the value of assets, and that also has a contractionary effect - see Irving Fisher on this.
DeleteSo those debts are paid from commercial lender profits. If however the Central bank is the Lender, how is that scenario handled.
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