Showing posts from March, 2022

Sleepwalking into war

In a broad-ranging discussion the other day about the path of political and economic policy over the last decade, I found myself returning again and again to events in 2014. Events that were apparently unrelated: Bulgaria's banking crisis , Moldova's banking fraud , the collapse of Banco Espirito Santo , the election of Syriza in Greece, the first Scottish independence referendum, UKIP's success in two Westminster by-elections as well as local and European elections. And in Ukraine, the Euromaidan revolt followed by Russia's annexation of Crimea and invasion of Donbas. "Why do all roads lead back to 2014?" I found myself asking.  The financial and political eruptions of 2014 marked the start of a major shift in the global geopolitical landscape. But it was not clear where the faultline lay. Lots of people thought it was between the Western "old order" and the emergent economies of Asia, led by China. And others, including me, thought it was a revolt