tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post5867723476902407864..comments2024-03-28T12:23:39.665+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: Some unpleasant trade realitiesFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-74889954756019065862016-09-26T05:46:26.401+01:002016-09-26T05:46:26.401+01:00How about some trade?
You can have Sen. Clinton a...How about some trade?<br /><br />You can have Sen. Clinton and tRump and we get Nigel Farage? <br /><br />If not maybe Boris? <br /><br />All aside, if we all vote for a third party we won't get either of them. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-25741154049689376712016-09-25T18:29:19.493+01:002016-09-25T18:29:19.493+01:00Thank you for your interesting article. Because I ...Thank you for your interesting article. Because I found it via a site which demands factual and expert submissions, I had to check your credentials. Your "about" page simply says "writer". It was google which finally revealed to me your background in banking.<br /><br />Just a thought, but you might want to make your experience a bit more clear on your "About" page. It will help for your views to be taken more seriously.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-47823120624193411302016-09-25T14:18:08.822+01:002016-09-25T14:18:08.822+01:00I doubt it. I doubt it. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-89405405216444858652016-09-25T11:51:01.624+01:002016-09-25T11:51:01.624+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Chrislongshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252889875324409569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-20139600217678273892016-09-25T11:42:00.124+01:002016-09-25T11:42:00.124+01:00Thanks for clarification perhaps this imposed WTO ...Thanks for clarification perhaps this imposed WTO requirement would encourage the EU to offer something better?<br />Chrislongshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252889875324409569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-3265968736098773752016-09-24T22:10:56.589+01:002016-09-24T22:10:56.589+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-41159805366504525902016-09-24T16:58:22.423+01:002016-09-24T16:58:22.423+01:00By the UK. Assuming that, in the absence of a new ...By the UK. Assuming that, in the absence of a new free trade agreement with the EU, the UK reverted to WTO rules, it would have to impose WTO "most favoured nation" tariffs on EU imports. Failing to do so would be a breach of the WTO rules. <br /><br />The WTO "most favoured nation" rules are explained here: https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htmFrances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-40959553621636348522016-09-24T16:57:23.199+01:002016-09-24T16:57:23.199+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-87878957836451324842016-09-24T16:20:07.385+01:002016-09-24T16:20:07.385+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Chrislongshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252889875324409569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-10621030224865176732016-09-24T16:16:08.394+01:002016-09-24T16:16:08.394+01:00In point 2 you indicate imports from the EU would ...In point 2 you indicate imports from the EU would be subject to tariffs by whom would these be imposed? Chrislongshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252889875324409569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-51753809076678740752016-09-24T14:26:39.555+01:002016-09-24T14:26:39.555+01:00"It has become clear that the popular underst..."It has become clear that the popular understanding of trade, even among politicians who should know better, is stuck in the past, hence the ready recourse to tales of swashbuckling mercantilism and the revival of trade ties with Australia and Canada. This could be dismissed as popular prejudice, but the condition of public opinion is probably more down to ignorance about prospective growth markets for British goods and services than racism. Most Brits would guess that China is the largest country by population, because that is emphasised with monotonous regularity by the press (playing on an old fear of Asiatic hordes), but few would guess that Pakistan and Bangladesh are both in the top 10 (let alone that Indonesia is in the top 5), essentially because media coverage of those countries is largely reduced to terrorism and natural disasters, which leads us to underestimate the size of their middle class and thus their spending power."<br /><br /><a href="http://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/empire-loyalists.html" rel="nofollow">From Arse to Elbow: Empire Loyalists</a>George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-76723789213941506862016-09-21T21:01:15.179+01:002016-09-21T21:01:15.179+01:00What you describe is tribalism, not racism. That w...What you describe is tribalism, not racism. That was the term I used in the post, and I believe that in general it is a better descriptor for what is going on. However, the fact remains that there are racist attitudes in the UK, and we have seen an increase in hate crime since the referendum. It would in my view be lily-livered to shy away from acknowledging this.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-5050790736897547502016-09-21T20:56:12.523+01:002016-09-21T20:56:12.523+01:00To some extent, yes. However, you should remember ...To some extent, yes. However, you should remember that trade goes both ways. We also import from the EU - in fact over half our imports come from there. So what we gain on export advantage, we lose in domestic price increases. Also, the U.K. is well integrated into international supply chains because of its openness, which diminishes the exchange rate effect. In 2009, sterling devalued by 25%, but it didn't make much difference to the balance of trade. No particular reason to assume that devaluation would do so now, if it didn't then.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-3159923858491618832016-09-21T20:50:31.295+01:002016-09-21T20:50:31.295+01:00I will correct. Point stands, though. EU is far mo...I will correct. Point stands, though. EU is far more populous than Australia.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-1327704122768627912016-09-21T20:49:04.661+01:002016-09-21T20:49:04.661+01:00In the comment you quote I am discussing competiti... In the comment you quote I am discussing competitive advantage, not comparative advantage. Dr. Masch's piece is therefore wholly irrelevant.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-37700014877667342302016-09-21T16:54:55.682+01:002016-09-21T16:54:55.682+01:00I dont believe anyone thinks the UK will get a bet...I dont believe anyone thinks the UK will get a better trade deal outside EU than in. But clearly a "hard Brexit" of the type being currently discussed in the media if the UK is not willing to accept the free movement of Labour (which it is not) will do considerable damage the BOTH the UK and the EU. When both sides have had time to look into the abyss and reflect on the matter positions may well shift.If the UK's point of departure in the upcoming negotiations is that a win -win solution is impossible then it will definitely be a lose-losemjb163https://www.blogger.com/profile/03719348212150942081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-69257240719279694982016-09-21T16:50:40.469+01:002016-09-21T16:50:40.469+01:00Brazil is actually much larger than it is appears ...Brazil is actually much larger than it is appears on the popular map , the Mercator projection. Brazil is bigger than Europe from Finland to Portugal including the UK.Dinerohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14632385731642361211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-64213097823750313092016-09-21T12:21:09.834+01:002016-09-21T12:21:09.834+01:00In terms of a framework for quantifying the value ...In terms of a framework for quantifying the value of a UK-EU trade deal, this is a reasonably good starting point:<br /><br />http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/16-03CETA.pdf<br /><br />If this sort of analytic approach gains currency, the "queue" that the UK negotiators are at the end of may get rather short rather soon.<br /><br />Michael Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10045827917076142231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-48425251824219794352016-09-21T11:54:49.846+01:002016-09-21T11:54:49.846+01:00Thank you, but I believe this quote from the linke...Thank you, but I believe this quote from the linked article is more or less exactly what I said above:<br /><br />"The only way it could, would be if a post-Brexit UK became — as some propose — much more of a free trader, with low import duties across the board, and minimal subsidies for farmers. This would be simple to establish in the WTO, but domestic opposition would have to be overcome first."<br /><br />That's the WTO baseline. We know what that is. Anything above that will have to be negotiated.<br /><br />Michael Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10045827917076142231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-55606480603646074292016-09-21T11:15:31.422+01:002016-09-21T11:15:31.422+01:00"Others seem to think that reverting to the E..."Others seem to think that reverting to the EU's standard tariffs for non-EU countries would not affect UK exports. I beg to differ. It would mean an immediate price increase for UK exports to the EU. This is bound to encourage price-sensitive EU importers to look for cheaper alternatives elsewhere. We should expect therefore that leaving the single market with no equivalent agreement in place would cause UK exports to the EU to fall, possibly drastically. It would also affect the EU's exports to the UK, of course - though German cars are pretty price inelastic. There aren't too many alternatives to them at the high end of the UK market."<br /><br /><br />Dr. Vladimir A. Masch points out quite clearly why you are wrong with this statement Francis.<br /><br />The Myth of comaparative advantage<br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vladimir-a-masch/the-myth-of-comparative-a_b_581814.htmlFootsoldierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06061374661482934570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-80218208509517653242016-09-21T10:14:24.388+01:002016-09-21T10:14:24.388+01:00There's an error in your stated population of ...There's an error in your stated population of the EU – "the EU (minus UK), 680m". That's actually the population of Europe minus the UK. The population of the EU minus the UK (i.e., the EU-27) is 443 m.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01596521611068295422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-69242054578873691582016-09-21T10:07:47.449+01:002016-09-21T10:07:47.449+01:00Racism is defined in my Oxford Dictionary as basic...Racism is defined in my Oxford Dictionary as basically the idea that some races are superior to others. I'm baffled as to why the desire to trade with or associate with people like oneself proves one thinks some races are superior to others. That makes as much sense as saying the Moon is made of cheeze because daffodils are yellow.<br /><br />Personally I'm indifferent as between trading with India and Australia, but I see nothing wrong in wanting to associate with people like oneself. Muslims do that, the Chinese in the UK tend to marry other Chinese people, etc etc. Of course there are no objections to that from the politically correct because the PC lot apply a totally different set of rules to whites as compared to non-whites. I.e. self-proclaimed anti-racists are themselves the worst racists sometimes (on a broad definition of the word racist). Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-7038709850544165622016-09-21T07:23:47.831+01:002016-09-21T07:23:47.831+01:00Brexit it has already weakened the pound, and may ...Brexit it has already weakened the pound, and may do so further. Would this not offset the price(in euros) of our exports to the EU thereby meaning they are not necessarily any less competitive due to any applied tariffs? Of course if said exports require constituent parts from the EU then obviously the situation becomes more complex (see comments above about needing spreadsheets). I think given the poor setup of the Euro the marginal decision to leave may not be as much of a disaster as hoped/feared ( delete as appropriate!). <br />MartinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-9633880146920808882016-09-21T05:02:48.630+01:002016-09-21T05:02:48.630+01:00"Why does most of the U.K. comment seem to th..."Why does most of the U.K. comment seem to think that doing a deal that looks like a win-win rather than a lose-lose is totally impossible"<br /><br />it's pretty obvious, really. If the UK can get a better trade deal with EU countries from outside the EU than they have within it, the EU is doomed. Therefore the UK losing out as a consequence of its decision is essential to preserving the EU. The EU's primary instinct is always self preservation (just look at the bailouts - they are all about keeping the EU together). So although there are some people genuinely trying to think up creative solutions to soften the blow, I fear they are dreaming. There is not going to be a win-win solution.<br /><br />However, that is not a reason to write off the EU, as some on the Leave side seem to want to do.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-14041984812273737012016-09-21T04:47:23.670+01:002016-09-21T04:47:23.670+01:00That would be because of the nature of your busine...That would be because of the nature of your business and its customer base. Not all businesses are subject to tariffs. But you cannot assume that because your business did not encounter tariffs, tariffs don't exist. Some tariff barriers are not called tariffs: license fees for foreign businesses, for example, are a tariff barrier under another name.<br />Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.com