tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post3088532543203422923..comments2024-03-28T12:23:39.665+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: Scotland's currency conundrumFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-37580960072432151962015-06-13T05:01:31.842+01:002015-06-13T05:01:31.842+01:00How much would iScotland need in currency reserves...How much would iScotland need in currency reserves to start its own currency? Could they get buy with their "per capita share" of the boE assests?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-72631445206363903242014-04-01T22:27:31.431+01:002014-04-01T22:27:31.431+01:00So the refusal of a currency union was a bluff and...So the refusal of a currency union was a bluff and all three of the main parties were lying? How do you think Scots feel about Westminster now? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-53400008016617104492014-01-09T14:18:21.598+00:002014-01-09T14:18:21.598+00:00If Scotland starts it's own currency, won'...If Scotland starts it's own currency, won't there be a run on the pound as it loses 10% of it's currency base? So as Salmond and Sturgeon say (laughingly and adamantly), there is no way rUK can sensibly object to the currency union? And that a shared pound is the best solution by far for both countries? <br /><br />Putting the petty stuff to one side, I'm sorry you had a mixed experience of Scotland. I find that people have matured far more and that anti-Englishness is diminishing rapidly, being recognised and treated as racist. On my course after we were asked to define, in groups, what it meant to be Scottishness, we were told that only in the last few years had people ceased to say: 'Not English'. As has been said a lot of English people up here are in favour. <br /><br />Independence is relative, what we want is political separation from Westminister's scandalous waste and inefficiency, obsession with global wars, nuclear weapons and lack of long-term economic strategy. And to make our own decisions, build a more equal, egalitarian Scandinavian model country with support for it's citizens and a spirit level. <br /><br />In the UK, that just isn't happening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-49277937361625360412013-08-31T19:07:32.362+01:002013-08-31T19:07:32.362+01:00An independent Scotland should have its own indepe...An independent Scotland should have its own independent currency<br />through its own independent Scottish bank in my opinion.Debthttp://www.economyprofessor.com/debt-advicenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-76414430725228402092012-02-05T22:36:31.922+00:002012-02-05T22:36:31.922+00:00Good question that you raised, and frankly as long...Good question that you raised, and frankly as long as countries are in competition for anything to back currency (David Ricardo nailed this when he wrote about currency having quantity), a dollar sterling backed by the natural resources of the Commonwealth is the best option.David W. Lincolnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-26178673350102326662012-01-27T00:06:25.459+00:002012-01-27T00:06:25.459+00:00There's a very interesting counterpoint to you...There's a very interesting counterpoint to your argument at http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/chancellor_would_welcome_post_independence_currency_union_alex_salmond_1_2079916 . In short, all users of sterling would benefit if it was adopted by a country with the asset base that an independent Scotland would have. After all, the ratings agencies have said more or less explicitly that it is that asset base that has allowed the UK to retain its triple-A rating when others with much healthier debt to GDP ratios have been downgraded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-12711056602202713062012-01-25T10:57:29.077+00:002012-01-25T10:57:29.077+00:00You missed a big issue:
Scotland will remain liab...You missed a big issue:<br /><br />Scotland will remain liable for a portion of UK Public Sector Net Debt. This liability MUST be denominated in the Pound Sterling. <br /><br />Scotland therefore cannot adopt a non-Sterling currency - or a currency which is not pegged directly to Sterling - until that debt is substantially repaid or somehow replaced. To adopt, say, the Euro, would risk devaluation against the Pound, which would raise the real debt burden. If the debt burden starts at upwards of 70% of GDP (in GBP) that is a risk nobody (sane) would take.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-77468885949184393492012-01-22T22:53:24.627+00:002012-01-22T22:53:24.627+00:00Anonymous
I am English. I have never used that te...Anonymous<br /><br />I am English. I have never used that term about the Scots, nor have I ever heard it used despite 11 years of marriage to a Scot.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-79382392728508182622012-01-22T22:29:46.144+00:002012-01-22T22:29:46.144+00:00Anonymous
And your point is....?
I don't thi...Anonymous<br /><br />And your point is....?<br /><br />I don't think I have suggested any of those in this post. And as you were not present on the occasion when I experienced being insulted simply because I was English, you cannot possibly know what the motives of those people were. One of the things that was criticised was my accent - apparently my vowels were not as "pure" as Scottish vowels. What has that to do with any of the points you raise?Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-21924569599255008772012-01-22T20:42:15.312+00:002012-01-22T20:42:15.312+00:00When Scots complain about English attitudes it is ...When Scots complain about English attitudes it is not normally as 'oppressors' but as ignorant loudmouths with little understanding of Scotland, the nature of the Union and often, with astonishingly poor understanding of England's role. The thing that really winds Scots up about individual English people (as distinct from Westminster) is the idea that England and Britain are the same thing; that Scots who decide not to support England are 'treacherous' and 'disloyal'; that there is a Queen of England; that sterling is an English currency etc...<br /><br />It is the same kind of offence that a wife might feel if she received a letter addressed to 'Mr and Mrs John Coppola'...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-85290098827742953192012-01-22T20:35:54.497+00:002012-01-22T20:35:54.497+00:00The Scots do not have a term of abuse for the Engl...The Scots do not have a term of abuse for the English. But the English often offensively dismiss the Scots as 'sweaties'.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-91718332635346117522012-01-22T11:39:47.817+00:002012-01-22T11:39:47.817+00:00http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/are-i...http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/are-independence-scare-stories-more-likely-to-have-the-opposite-effect.16544233Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-81626300078443867672012-01-22T07:26:26.474+00:002012-01-22T07:26:26.474+00:00The implication of your post is that Scotland is u...The implication of your post is that Scotland is unlikely to gain economically from political Independence. Being Independent legally does not free you from the greater power of other nations. It is ironic that the great Scotsman Adam Smith made this the foundation of his economic theory in 1776, that integration by trade is the logical result of division of labour and the foundation of increases in the wealth of nations! The union with England seems to be a logical result of this theory. The euro follows too, but there was no political union with the euro and a shared treasury as in the UK case. So if the eurocrats had done their home work they would have applied the British method of creating a single currency.Keithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-67797464587025255132012-01-20T09:23:31.185+00:002012-01-20T09:23:31.185+00:00Anonymous
I stand corrected! Omitting Scotland fr...Anonymous<br /><br />I stand corrected! Omitting Scotland from the Act making BoE-issued bank notes legal tender was presumably because that would undermine use of Scottish pound notes?Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-41919506090230993212012-01-20T09:06:22.729+00:002012-01-20T09:06:22.729+00:00Sorry Anonymous, it appears I misunderstood. As yo...Sorry Anonymous, it appears I misunderstood. As you say, simple line of equidistance is almost the worst outcome for Scotland (the present boundary is worse still, of course). <br /><br />Yes, if negotiation failed there would have to be legal arbitration. I really hope there would not be war!Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-64748024412547824452012-01-20T01:49:16.003+00:002012-01-20T01:49:16.003+00:00As regards the legal tender I was merely pointing ...As regards the legal tender I was merely pointing out that no notes are legal tender in Scotland, as the act making BoE notes legal tender doesn't apply outside of England and Wales http://www.royalmint.com/corporate/policies/legal_tender_guidelines.aspx,I stand corrected as regards coinage. I only mentioned it as often small states with small currencies can experience problems due to foreign exchange issues(I recently studied in Iceland and was made acutely aware of this fact on numerous occasions. Scotland would suffer the lack of foreign currency that Iceland has as all existing notes are backed up by BoE notes. This would enable an independent currency to start from a stronger footing than if this wasn't the case. <br /><br />I love the term 'petro-pound' but the potential to mean that Scotland undergoes massively fluctuating inflation and deflation i think could damage the ability for businesses to plan for future investment.<br /><br />I agree that Scotland would need to set up a separate central bank no matter what route it took post independence, it is I think a vital part of the organs of a modern state.Max Clarkhttp://twitter.com/maximusclarknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-66146473712335467892012-01-20T01:33:46.717+00:002012-01-20T01:33:46.717+00:00That is simply not right. "Legal tender"...That is simply not right. "Legal tender" does not mean "lawfully used currency". It is a legal concept. A creditor can be forced by a debtor to accept payment in legal tender. See http://www.royalmint.com/corporate/policies/legal_tender_guidelines.aspx . I recalled that the only legal tender in Scotland for a debt of any value was the two pound coin but it appears that the pound coin is too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-49459618292141797572012-01-20T01:18:19.455+00:002012-01-20T01:18:19.455+00:00It was negotiated between two Labour governments. ...It was negotiated between two Labour governments. Of course the boundary would have to be negotiated upon independence but if negotiation failed there would be an arbitration by reference to international law, unless you are advocating war. my point is that, pace your implication, equidistance is the worst possible outcome for Scotland.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-38132386821726646942012-01-18T18:24:08.254+00:002012-01-18T18:24:08.254+00:00Max,
While Scotland remains in the UK all bank no...Max,<br /><br />While Scotland remains in the UK all bank notes issued by the Bank of England and coins issued by the Royal Mint are legal tender in Scotland, as these are UK not English currency. England doesn't have its own currency. Whether the Scottish government recognises UK notes and coins is really irrelevant at the moment as its devolved powers don't currently include issuing its own legal tender.<br /><br />After independence, if Scotland had its own central bank it could if it wished issue "Scottish pounds" without pegging them to the UK currency, because those Scottish pounds would then be legal tender in Scotland. As I discussed in the post, the reason for pegging the Scottish pound to the UK pound would be to ensure international credibility. But an alternative, which someone above has suggested (and I admit I did not think of, but rather like) is backing the Scottish pound with energy (a Scottish "petro-pound"). If this were done then it would not need to be pegged to any other currency.<br /> <br />I agree that negotiations will have to include arrangements for central banking in Scotland. I did discuss this a bit in the post. The idea of two independent countries somehow jointly owning a single central bank is fraught with problems in my view. The only model we have for that really is the Eurozone, and the ECB is undoubtedly completely dominated by Germany - as would be likely in this case too, simply because the "rump UK" economy is so much larger than Scotland's. I think there would have to be a separate Scottish central bank, really - especially if there is a separate Scottish currency.<br /><br />You are so right about the political posturing that will go on both before and after the referendum.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-75083375340720618882012-01-18T18:06:58.080+00:002012-01-18T18:06:58.080+00:00James,
In the post itself I acknowledged the real...James,<br /><br />In the post itself I acknowledged the real grievances that I know many Scots have against the English. I don't regard these as unreasonable: I regard the behaviour of some English, and some sections of the British media, towards the Scots as unacceptable. I did not wish to discuss them in this post, as I wanted to focus on the currency issue. Unfortunately someone decided to rubbish the one comment I made about this, and I defended myself. Perhaps I should have said nothing - but why should I keep silent about my experience? This, after all, is my blog, and you - not I - are a guest here. If I can't speak freely here, where can I? <br /><br />Since then various people have taken it upon themselves - unfairly - to describe me as either naive (as you do) or racist. I find the whole thing completely depressing. There is zero chance of any kind of rational debate or amicable settlement while people are slinging mud at each other.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-54080808079927247462012-01-18T16:08:07.884+00:002012-01-18T16:08:07.884+00:00There are close to half-a-million English born peo...There are close to half-a-million English born people who live and work in Scotland, and Scotland is the better for it. Some of them are SNP MSP's, councillors and party members.<br /><br />99% of Scots make no distinction, and I regard English people who have settled here as being as Scottish as me. Which is as it should be.<br /> <br />I'm sorry that you may have met some of the 1% but are you really so unaware of the level of arrogance and petty racism that so readily flows through so much political and cultural discourse in England, day in, day out."Frogs", "Krauts" ... and of course "the jocks". The Daily Mail and The Telegraph has been channelling all that suppressed dislike of Scots this past 10 days or more.<br /><br />I would suggest you look at cleaning up your own backyard before throwing mud on ours !James Downoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-15656319762174217682012-01-18T14:24:02.393+00:002012-01-18T14:24:02.393+00:00The issue of pegged currency is an interesting one...The issue of pegged currency is an interesting one, as I understand it (I may be wrong), currently there isn't actually any form of legal tender here in Scotland, not Scottish notes nor English note (nor Northern Irish notes for that matter) have legal standing in Scotland. What relevance does this have in an independent Scotland you ask? Well, if memory serves, notes issued by the Scottish banks must be backed up, pound for pound, by the individual bank's holdings of BoE notes. This is why there are the likes of £100,000,000 notes, so that Scottish and Northern Irish banks don't have to have stacks and stacks of £10 notes in vaults dotted around the country. The consequence of this is, if you imagine that Scottish notes became an independent currency, is that the Scots pound is pegged to the UK pound, but through multiple issuing authorities.<br /><br />As regards the negotiations and this is the bit that is really getting me riled. The plan is currently that we have the referendum and if we vote yes, we then begin negotiations on the specifics, such as oil boundaries, RBS, LTSBHBOS, the national debt, citizenship, EU membership and so forth.<br /> <br />My first big problem with all this is that the basis for the arguments in the referendum, both for and against, are going to be purely speculative. As we've seen with this currency debate, one sides arguments are based on negotiations going one way (i.e the BoE being part of the rump UK government) and the other side another way (i.e. the BoE becoming some sort of joint owned company between Scotland and the rump UK, or being split between the two). This means that Unionists will argue against an independent Scotland which has come of badly out the negotiations, and Nationalists will argue for an independent Scotland which has got the best possible deal out of the negotiations. Neither of these two will be the independent Scotland that we get IF we vote yes. We'll actually be voting for a complete unknown quantity.<br /><br />The second problem with this post-referendum negotiation is the way in which it will be conducted. Alex Salmond will walk into the room smirking gleefully, he’s won, the negotiating team from the UK gov sitting opposite is the conquered foe, suing for peace, and Salmond will start laying out his demands. However once beaten the UK team are essentially there to fight for the interests of the rump-UK left post independence, while Salmond's team is there to argue the interests of independent Scotland. Even if the UK team want an amicable divorce, imagine the pressure they will be under from the English, Welsh and Northern Irish public. They will be rather reluctant to give way on much at all. <br />However if the negotiations were conducted in their entirety or in part, prior to the referendum the UK government is obligated to work in the interests of the entire UK including Scotland. Now I'.m sure cybernats will disagree with me on this however I ask them, thinking cynically, to remember that during the referendum campaign, the UK government will be trying to ingratiate itself as much as possible with the Scottish public, and will want to avoid at all costs being seen not to be concerned with the Scottish peoples interests. Thus it will try to be fair minded in negotiations, so as to appear so to the public who are deciding which way to go...Max Clarkhttp://twitter.com/maximusclarknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-26155375130004199622012-01-18T13:04:58.829+00:002012-01-18T13:04:58.829+00:00There are still new finds of North Sea oil being a...There are still new finds of North Sea oil being announced. The decline will be a slow and ++long one, and the likelihood is the the unit price of oil will rise as production drops, Scotland is also well placed for renewable energy, and we have a super-abundance of water - a commodity becoming increasingly scarce in Southern England. All of these resources should form an adequate backing for a currency, even before agriculture, industry, fishing ans other sources of wealth are taken into account.<br /><br />I am sorry that your experience of Scotland was not positive, but I have to say that it was not representative, either. Nor is Scotland an earthly paradise - there is racism, as the tragic Chhokar murder case reveals. But there are many worse places to live as an immigrantRichard Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06600522000122688279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-88820172447648373802012-01-18T13:02:26.918+00:002012-01-18T13:02:26.918+00:00The only really informative precedent is that of C...The only really informative precedent is that of Czechoslovakia. It was recognised on independence there that both successor states were ongoing stakeholders in the old currency before both came round to issuing their own. There's no good reason why the same shouldn't be the interim arrangement in the event of Scotland forming their own sovereign state/dissolving the old one.Graeme Cowiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02704481523638679620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-24739441516597720042012-01-18T12:53:06.686+00:002012-01-18T12:53:06.686+00:00Well, English me has lived and worked in Scotland ...Well, English me has lived and worked in Scotland for 25 years, and have never heard an anti English word. Plenty of people in England take it upon themselves to traduce Scotland when I'm down there though. And I strongly contest your assertion that case for independence is based on greivane - not so, it is based on aspiration and hopeRichard Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06600522000122688279noreply@blogger.com