tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post1872954139778971015..comments2024-03-28T12:23:39.665+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: The illusory housing recoveryFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-33357219707926244252015-05-24T16:07:29.789+01:002015-05-24T16:07:29.789+01:00Excellent summary. My suspicion is that the contin...Excellent summary. My suspicion is that the continued downward pressure on real wages is going to end up suppressing rental yields, choking many of the greater fools now rushing into BTL. I don't imagine many tears will be shed for them.Politically, despite never having voted Conservative before, I would have seriously considered it this time last year. Now? Not a chance.........<br /><br /><a href="http://www.primusplace.co.uk/" rel="nofollow">Student apartments in Leicester</a> | <a href="http://www.primusplace.co.uk/" rel="nofollow">Primus Place</a>Alex kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07295354966241785684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-19080171543296098512015-01-17T00:46:31.803+00:002015-01-17T00:46:31.803+00:00thanks for your fantastic informative blog
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With quite a few individuals interested in serving in the role of president at HBCU s who are being <br />overlooked for a variety of other things you can do to help.<br />That's because it is hard, but not nearly the magnetism that tin or iron has.<br />There are numerous ways Recycling Perks helps our environment.<br /><br /><br />my blog post :: <a href="http://www.reliabledumpsterrentals.com/georgia/dumpster-rental-mcdonough-ga/" rel="nofollow">rent dumpsters</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-73030604335154135692014-06-19T14:46:34.802+01:002014-06-19T14:46:34.802+01:00Nothing he does makes much sense from an economic ...Nothing he does makes much sense from an economic point of view."<br />Well, someone has had a pretty good crack at explaining his actionsagen sbobet onlinehttp://goo.gl/s2LVUjnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-43743260585205650782014-04-28T09:45:15.568+01:002014-04-28T09:45:15.568+01:00Excellent analysis Frances, once again confirming ...Excellent analysis Frances, once again confirming my own suspicions. Thank you<br /><a href="http://goo.gl/F2eE1T" rel="nofollow">Agen Poker Online Indonesia Terpercaya</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10931215125821583946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-57397067959790314712014-04-23T19:02:09.095+01:002014-04-23T19:02:09.095+01:00Good answer. Additional potential revenue of upwar...Good answer. Additional potential revenue of upwards of £100k pa per property in central London should be enough to encourage councils to invest in the amount of investigation that will be needed to prove houses are empty. There’ll still be loopholes and foreign owners paying a flying visit every year, though. Otherwise, problem solved, for those able to afford these rents. I was more concerned with the impact of accelerating prices lower down the scale, as I know you are.<br />Best wishes<br />Ray<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-89771965214538487572014-04-23T17:37:55.059+01:002014-04-23T17:37:55.059+01:00I'm in favour of 100% taxation of notional ren...I'm in favour of 100% taxation of notional rents on empty properties. That should ensure that overseas owners actually let their properties out instead of keeping them empty. Overseas owners don't pay income tax here.<br /><br />Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-54325303953512990062014-04-23T10:31:46.889+01:002014-04-23T10:31:46.889+01:00Hi Frances – thank you for your remarkable analyse...Hi Frances – thank you for your remarkable analyses<br />I’d welcome your views on how to stop London house prices increasing. I’m not sure that this is a bubble, as the point of bubbles is that they can be pricked, and I don’t see how this one can be.<br />London has become a global city, and its houses are seen as a safe haven for foreign money. The super rich are getting richer at an accelerating pace as they hoover up everyone else’s wealth, and need to protect and grow this rapidly expanding pot by some risk-free means. Investing in desirable properties, which are in short supply, is a one-way bet. There is nothing to stop London house increasing. Rents will increase in parallel, because so many foreign-owned houses are removed from the market entirely: they aren’t let out and remain empty. Londoners will gradually be forced out, or pushed out by government edict. Rental returns will eventually fall, and some of the pressure will move out to the rest of the country, but not before British landlords sell up to foreigners, thus reducing the supply of London rental property.<br />Governments are encouraging trickle-up through lax tax regimes that favour the wealthy, and dare not do anything else because this group pay significant income tax. London councils are pulling down council estates for redevelopment for the wealthy, encouraged by a government that has abandoned even the joke that was ‘affordable housing’. As you say, governments won’t implement policies that cause house prices to fall, and I can’t see even a Labour government still in thrall to Tory policies and in the face of popular acceptance of Tory economics being able to build its way out of trouble fast enough.<br />The only thing that will stop this is London losing its status as a safe and desirable haven. But that won’t happen until it has become a ghost town, full of empty property.<br />Do you have any ideas?<br />Best wishes<br />Ray<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-78825580058398277862014-03-27T04:32:15.277+00:002014-03-27T04:32:15.277+00:00Nice Bolg..Thanks for sharing such useful informat...Nice Bolg..Thanks for sharing such useful information to all..<br /><a href="http://velodomeshelters.com/guardian.html" rel="nofollow">bike parking shelter</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-17569828478561734562014-02-17T07:49:29.428+00:002014-02-17T07:49:29.428+00:00Thanks for sharing this information.It is one of t...Thanks for sharing this information.It is one of the best post from other. 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In spite of the fact that, market patterns there, are showing that the seller will be in better position.Luxury Real Estate in Arizonahttp://theresidencesdovemountain.com/residences/index.phpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-25691460485685497182013-12-04T13:14:45.352+00:002013-12-04T13:14:45.352+00:00Outstanding item Frances - thank you. However you ...Outstanding item Frances - thank you. However you should bear in mind that Help to Buy home loan assures will not be restricted to First Time Customers. Which of course creates the plan even more risky.<br /><br />for more info <a href="http://www.the-property-sellers.com/" rel="nofollow">www.the-property-sellers.com/</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381563272957289254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-68897702680179735432013-11-20T10:56:01.612+00:002013-11-20T10:56:01.612+00:00Yes your are wright and thanks for post a good top...Yes your are wright and thanks for post a good topic . your post is<br /><br /><a href="http://www.topmost100.com" rel="nofollow"> top most </a> in realated post of <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00403716511005135408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-54558233217881163342013-10-31T03:25:36.520+00:002013-10-31T03:25:36.520+00:00Excellent blog you’ve got here.. It’s difficult to...Excellent blog you’ve got here.. It’s difficult to find high-quality writing like yours nowadays. I really appreciate individuals like you! Take care!! You can visit my site. <br /><a href="http://www.georgegannon.com/" rel="nofollow">UK Property Investing</a><br />This is a fantastic website, could you be interested in going through an interview concerning just how you made it? You can visit my site. <br /><a href="http://www.georgegannon.com/" rel="nofollow">UK Property Investing</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07058544171610361747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-14113278527419407512013-08-27T14:05:10.995+01:002013-08-27T14:05:10.995+01:00A breath of fresh air, as always! Not just the po...A breath of fresh air, as always! Not just the post itself, but also in the comments it's great to see you pointing out to people that inflation is bad news for borrowers if their income doesn't keep pace with it, as is currently the case.<br /><br />Now, I don't want to get into an argument with you because we've been here before, but I just thought I'd point out that the causes of this 'recovery' laid out in your post (foreign money keeping property <b>empty</b> and BTL) would both be negated by a transfer of the tax burden from labour to economic rent.<br /><br />Since you mentioned her, <a href="http://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/scrap-income-tax-introduce-location-tax-57801/" rel="nofollow">here</a> is Merryn Somerset Webb's article supporting it and <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/8fd9aa52-7e21-11da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html#axzz2dAqQqb3j" rel="nofollow">here</a> is Martin Wolf having his say.<br /><br />Gweiryddnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-34750488257152069372013-08-17T09:41:54.103+01:002013-08-17T09:41:54.103+01:00I know the H2B scheme is being extended. I think t...I know the H2B scheme is being extended. I think this is crazy.Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-11349811701633995412013-08-16T23:18:52.567+01:002013-08-16T23:18:52.567+01:00Excellent piece Frances - thank you. However you s...Excellent piece Frances - thank you. However you should be aware that Help to Buy mortgage guarantees will not be limited to First Time Buyers. Which of course makes the scheme even more dangerous.<br /><br />The first bubble was tragedy, this one is a farce. Actually in London I guess it's both as the bubble is still with us, 10 years on. Eddie George admitted blowing it up & asked Mervyn King to fix it; Mervyn King admitted "short term measures" were needed which contradicted long-term sense, again leaving it to Mark Carney to clean up, and no doubt Carney will leave it to the next guy, just as he's done in Canada.<br /><br />Until the housing boil is lanced there is no future here for the average under-40 family.<br /><br />For any Tory party types reading this: I voted Tory in 2010, and am a prospective First Time Buyer in a marginal London constituency where housing affordability is a problem for young professional (read Tory) families. Many of whom work in finance like myself. So I am exactly the target market for a genuine fix to FTB affordability. Yet this policy alone will ensure the loss of two votes for my MP, and an active campaign against her. People like Lynton Crosby and George Osborne will be long gone while your party is still suffering the consequences of this disgraceful exercise. Good luck surviving on the rump of the baby boomer vote when the pensions crisis hits and gets blamed on Carney keeping rates too low for too long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-71659214460022322472013-08-16T16:01:11.727+01:002013-08-16T16:01:11.727+01:00The House Builders' Federation response is to ...The House Builders' Federation response is to be expected, hiding behind the assertion that it will enable more house building but this is likely to be of £599k houses when we really need starter homes, homes for singles and DINKYs etc. <br /><br />But there is no smoking gun AFAIK. Would that there were.<br /><br />Landlords will also welcome it although they may well get badly burnt when the bubble bursts while builders will have sold at least some of their stock.<br /><br />It is very dangerous.John@MoneyPrinciplehttp://www.themoneyprinciple.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-1081815976914557472013-08-15T22:49:50.083+01:002013-08-15T22:49:50.083+01:00The construction industry is absolutely behind thi...The construction industry is absolutely behind this. Support from the Home Builders Federation, which is a major lobbying force in Whitehall:<br /><br />http://www.hbf.co.uk/media-centre/news/view/positive-budget-for-housing/ Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-62430484123349409332013-08-15T22:43:05.283+01:002013-08-15T22:43:05.283+01:00The mismatch between supply of and demand for hous...The mismatch between supply of and demand for housing since at least the Right to Buy of the early '80s is behind all the UK's economic woes in my opinion. It was fine for those already owning houses in the '80s but has squeezed everyone else out.<br /><br />Price pumping is not only irresponsible and dangerous, it is evil. I hope the electorate realises this in 2015 but given the silence from the opposition on the topic, they may just vote for the feel-good of a 'recovery'. Support for all property up to £600k verges on criminal stupidity or electoral corruption.<br /><br />The only rational but frightening explanation is that the banks are so afraid of house price collapse and the effect on their capitalisation of negative equity and mortgage default that they have supported this insane policy to put off the evil day - but of course it would then be much worse in the end.<br /><br />We need more housing to meet population growth and demographic changes. The only case I can see for mortgage guarantee or support of any kind from the government is for new starter homes to promote building - maybe on properties up to £150k limiting the support to 20% (perhaps a tad more within the M25). This would prop up prices at the bottom and have minimum distortion further up the market.<br /><br />People could be weaned off renting into owning which would cut the demand for rented property. This may hurt new entrants to property investment but I don't shed too many tears there. <br /><br />A sustained policy of some sort of support for building starter properties would also help cut the Housing Benefit bill, which could be a double whammy - HB is I believe only payable on the interest component of a mortgage.<br /><br />Maybe the construction industry is behind this - if so then the sooner the funding of political parties is taken out of the control of vested interests on all sides, the better. John@MoneyPrinciplehttp://www.themoneyprinciple.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-76026025633175936872013-08-15T21:34:18.589+01:002013-08-15T21:34:18.589+01:00Interesting article, but a few points:
People mea...Interesting article, but a few points:<br /><br />People mean two different things when they say "housing recovery": prices are rising, or the pace of building is accelerating. They naturally go hand in hand, but not in lock step.<br /><br />Although we thinking of rising house prices, what we really mean is rising land prices. Structures are worth their replacement costs, which are vary with wages and material prices, but are generally much more stable than land prices.<br /><br />Rising land prices will generally drive building, but if you're interested in an economic recovery angle, you should be looking at building, not at prices.<br /><br />Homebuilding isn't a particularly good or particularly bad kind of economic activity. It can be productive investment where there is genuine need to house people near growing business. Usually it's just another kind of consumption.<br /><br />The reason why homebuilding and land price booms can be such a problem for the economy is all to do with them being driven by credit.<br /><br />A buy-to-let driven recovery is still a recovery, and actually a relatively sustainable type of recovery, because rents aren't as volatile as credit-fueled demand.<br /><br />Where I absolutely agree is that quickly rising land aka house prices are a bad sign for the economy, but for a slightly different reason: because of the credit issues involved. Stimulating by trying to engineer a "wealth effect" always seemed to me profoundly stupid.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-78090900591269899082013-08-15T20:07:34.225+01:002013-08-15T20:07:34.225+01:00I am afraid that I really don't get the argume...I am afraid that I really don't get the argument here. A "bubble" in an asset class is when prices outstrip any rational backing for price. A bubble is when people are buying on the "greater fool" basis, and bubbles collapse when they run out of greater fools and have to liquidate. The US house bubble, for example, involved people buying second and third homes with 100% mortgages, hoping to flip them, and when the market leveled off and it became clear that there were no more fools, they had to liquidate and the market collapsed.<br /><br />But this article says quite the reverse. It says that London prices are being driven by foreign buying. The World is becoming an unstable place, not least in the Middle East, so if you are an Arab or Indian investor with business interests from Mumbai to New York, where would be an attractive place to live, Bonn?<br /><br />And the argument about rents is also a bad one. If rents are high, that makes house ownership more attractive on a rational basis. Higher returns on rental housing makes housing a rational choice of investment, *not* a bubble.<br /><br />Oh, and "Help to Buy" should be scrapped? Really? Wouldn't that just tilt the market even more in the direction of foreign and/or cash-only buyers? I can see no good argument against young couples buying homes, even with Government backing. A house is a very good investment over a decades-long time-frame and people who end up owning their home before they retire then have much lower living costs after retirement than people who rent all their lives, and that translates into lower costs of social support after retirement, so for a Government, subsidising people to buy a home when they are young is actually a pretty good investment.<br /><br />And why all the worry in the comments about derivatives? A foreign investor who buys a house in London "just in case" is likely to be paying in cash.<br /><br />To put that another way, if the Banks are once more getting into highly leveraged loans, we have more problems than the house market, but I think we know that isn't happening.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-42609108341135985832013-08-15T14:11:02.538+01:002013-08-15T14:11:02.538+01:00I would like to see Help to Buy scrapped and FLS r...I would like to see Help to Buy scrapped and FLS restricted to SME lending only.<br /><br />I don't agree with Andrew Sentance. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.com