tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post1353902869593402283..comments2024-03-29T10:48:38.142+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: Patrick Minford's holidaysFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-45275841752946697552018-09-09T12:31:46.733+01:002018-09-09T12:31:46.733+01:00It's not that simple.
Firstly, you have the ...It's not that simple. <br /><br />Firstly, you have the national accounting wrong. Foreign aid is not part of the external sector (I-E). It is part of G. If you reduce G by that amount, total GDP is reduced, obviously. But as the benefit of foreign aid shows itself in the balance of payments (countries receiving aid can be better able to afford our exports), removing it from G only overstates GDP ex-foreign aid. <br /><br />Secondly, you have GDP growth figures wrong. 0.3% is a quarterly figure, not a full-year figure. Independent forecast figures published by HM Treasury show estimated full-year GDP growth rate for 2018 as 1.4%. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/forecasts-for-the-uk-economy-june-2018<br /><br />Nice try, but foreign aid is a fleabite, no more. <br />Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-76804386288108562822018-09-05T17:01:56.147+01:002018-09-05T17:01:56.147+01:00Do other economies - the Eurozone for example - ta...Do other economies - the Eurozone for example - take 0.7% of all domestic sales/purchases, i.e. their GDP and send it abroad by law as foreign aid? <br /><br />Our 2018 Economic growth figure is an expansion in sales/purchases (GDP) in the economy, of just 0.3%. <br /><br />If 0.7% of that economies GDP is then to be taken, and sent abroad, doesn't that mean actual domestic economic activity has shrunk overall by -0.5%??? <br /><br />If GDP = C + I + G + (I -E) i.e. the Balance of Payments bit (Imports-Exports) on the end, means we subtract the money that is sent/spent abroad, this would indicate we are in a recession caused by excessive foreign aid payments. <br /><br />How have I got this wrong???eagleeyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546643991082932285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-43870526157191449692018-08-30T13:10:09.325+01:002018-08-30T13:10:09.325+01:00Depends entirely on the period over which the anal...Depends entirely on the period over which the analysis takes place, e.g.<br /><br />1. Consumer confidence - is (i) much higher than in 08/09, (ii) lower than in 15, and (iii) had been increasing from late 17.<br /><br />(https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/consumer-confidence)<br /><br />2. Current account balance - is significantly better than in Q5 15, worse than in Q1 17, had been trending up since Q2 17.<br /> <br />(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp)<br /><br />On the 'value' point, similarly depends on if the term is being used on an absolute or comparative basis. <br /><br />Minford may not have made all of that clear. I'm not taking a position either way. But there are valid arguments supported by selective data points for his position, just as there are for yours.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-72826496144932411542018-08-29T12:36:41.072+01:002018-08-29T12:36:41.072+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.jerred seiysllhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17375770046164311780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-17211259320236072852018-08-29T11:50:16.492+01:002018-08-29T11:50:16.492+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.jerred seiysllhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17375770046164311780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-26347295777841644022018-08-29T11:15:52.362+01:002018-08-29T11:15:52.362+01:00I remind you AGAIN of the comment policy of his bl...I remind you AGAIN of the comment policy of his blog, as stated on the About This Blog page:<br /><br />- be polite and refrain from personal attacks on me or anyone else<br /><br />- stick to the topic. <br /><br />I will delete any posts you make that violate either of these rules. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-15932179720001968972018-08-29T11:13:46.607+01:002018-08-29T11:13:46.607+01:00This is not a political post, it is simply a debun...This is not a political post, it is simply a debunking of extremely dodgy economic assertions and wrong statistics. Please confine yourself to discussing the subject of the post and refrain from political grandstanding. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-31595587897842899102018-08-29T10:43:54.738+01:002018-08-29T10:43:54.738+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.jerred seiysllhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17375770046164311780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-76482397852491527882018-08-29T10:15:37.895+01:002018-08-29T10:15:37.895+01:00I used figures going back over two years. That is ...I used figures going back over two years. That is what the charts show, including the trade balance chart from the latest ONS release. <br /><br />I have warned you before about personal attacks and rudeness. I will not post comments from you that attack me or anyone else commenting on this site. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-15286317460451142652018-08-29T09:43:45.791+01:002018-08-29T09:43:45.791+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.jerred seiysllhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17375770046164311780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-20242865522388866012018-08-28T22:24:06.837+01:002018-08-28T22:24:06.837+01:00Nick, it's definitely caused by changes in pri...Nick, it's definitely caused by changes in primary income, not trade. Specifically, income from direct investment turned negative in Q4 2015, but has now recovered and is roughly back to where it was in Q1 2015. The peak to trough movement is getting on for £10bn, which is more than enough to account for the improvement in the current account balance. See chart 3 here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/balanceofpayments/quarter1jantomar2018Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-3951425124682751542018-08-28T20:57:59.073+01:002018-08-28T20:57:59.073+01:00Thanks Nick. That's interesting. I think you m...Thanks Nick. That's interesting. I think you may well be right about investment income. I will have a look at the NIIP for that period. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-45505552561882181122018-08-28T19:03:50.759+01:002018-08-28T19:03:50.759+01:00Some indication of what Minford had in mind on the...Some indication of what Minford had in mind on the balance of payments might be given by his letter to The Times from July (https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/Media/the-times-brexit-devaluation/). His figures are correct and only a little selective. However, I think his assertion that this reflects changes in trade rather than in investment income is incorrect.Nick Edmondshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15342983814699700396noreply@blogger.com