tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post62096377548777836..comments2024-03-29T09:34:18.837+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: The day after tomorrowFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-74542130646112453372012-09-25T10:33:15.238+01:002012-09-25T10:33:15.238+01:00I did say that development of the "younger&qu...I did say that development of the "younger" nations depended on rich "older" nations releasing resources - which historically they have been unwilling to do. If hang on to wealth then rather than southern countries developing, there might be increased migration from south to north, particularly of young people. <br /><br />I'm certainly not blind to the problems in Africa. But demographics are definitely in their favour - as they have been in both China and India. A plentiful supply of young people is a very important asset, and many of these countries are also rich in natural resources. They have a lot going for them. <br /><br />Developing nations usually develop cities at the expense of rural areas and, often, industry at the expense of agriculture: if you remember, the UK did, in the Industrial Revolution. This causes people to migrate from rural areas to cities - as they are doing in China at the moment. The concentration of people in cities provides a plentiful labour source for industry and people scarcity in rural areas forces modernisation of farming techniques. The development of cities therefore usually drives growth rather than inhibiting it.<br /><br />Uneven rewards are not in themselves a growth inhibitor. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-20365205918718686212012-09-25T10:20:31.171+01:002012-09-25T10:20:31.171+01:00I'm not sure I agree with your analysis about ...I'm not sure I agree with your analysis about the southern global nations being "young, vibrant, growing". I think the situation there is much more complex than meets the eye. Its true that quite a lot of these nations have growing economies thanks to a commodities boom and youthful populations. However the economic growth in many southern nations is fair from evenly spread. <br /><br />In many ways the problems of developing nations parallel the problems that we in the developed world face, a rich elite disconnected from the countries they live in and a poor underclass that are often resistant to social interventions by government. However in developing nations the problems an order bigger and the government is often paralysed by VERY limited resources. Equally the "underclass" is often heavily influenced by tribal traditions which sometimes are very counterproductive to their development (eg. education of women and family planning). <br /><br />In the few third world countries I have visited you end up with the situation where government invests the money developing the cities where there is a growing middle class. Meanwhile the poor rural areas have limited resource thrown at them as the investments generate less than stellar results. However when you look at the population growth I suspect that you will find its often skewed to the rural poor (who are more likely to hold traditional beliefs on families than buy into the concept of a "western" nuclear family). This in turn leads to some difficult divisions (in nations where there is already divisions along tribal lines). <br /><br />Obviously its easy to be pessimistic about the developing world and much of what I have written assumes worst case scenarios about distribution of population growth and resources. However I fear that particularly with Africa we are in danger of moving from labeling it "the hopeless continent" to the new Eldorado when actually the truth is a bit more complex!paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-79498137999311216002012-09-24T21:20:43.075+01:002012-09-24T21:20:43.075+01:00Storm n+1: Global Food Crisis
http://www.declineo...Storm n+1: Global Food Crisis<br /><br />http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/09/welcome-to-dystopia.html<br />Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-20161573591825061702012-09-22T09:54:58.965+01:002012-09-22T09:54:58.965+01:00Francis, Re your claim that as regards so called b...Francis, Re your claim that as regards so called bank reform, the authorities are “trying to bring the dead back to life”, there are plenty of authorities that would agree. E.g. Kenneth Rogoff said “Legislation and regulation produced in the wake of the crisis have mostly served as a patch to preserve the status quo.” And Mervyn King said, “Basel III on its own will not prevent another crisis…”<br /><br />Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-90119394046883099932012-09-22T08:29:05.080+01:002012-09-22T08:29:05.080+01:00Are you people familiar with the work of former ce...Are you people familiar with the work of former central banker Bernard Lietaer ?<br /><br />I share his perspective anyway. We should look at the wonderful ways mother nature provides the fractal solutions. It is like ecosystems. we also need diversity instead of just efficiency.<br /><br />What we need are complementary currencies. Like Saber or Furia Kipu. It is about community not about individuality.<br />Computers made able to privatise, now it is networktime to unify. Evolution will follow the same public/private cycle Martin Armstrong is also talking about. <br /><br />Fractal we are. Always. Mother nature simply is.<br /><br />Human kind will have to learn and adapt. <br />... but slow learners we are. <br /><br />http://www.lietaer.com/<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nORI8r3JIywPaulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08106028167162534649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-57807349969436190842012-09-22T00:36:57.263+01:002012-09-22T00:36:57.263+01:00Hmm. A bit of both, really. I have immense faith i...Hmm. A bit of both, really. I have immense faith in human ingenuity, so I think we would probably continue to find ways of growing. In fact resource constraint is known to be a key driver of innovation. So I suppose I incline towards the optimistic. However, we do have to find a way of satisfying our energy needs without relying on hydrocarbons, and until we have achieved this we will face serious limits on growth and continual struggles for control of scarce resources. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-7741782836386348722012-09-22T00:32:12.313+01:002012-09-22T00:32:12.313+01:00Paul,
I agree that Storms 1 and 2 are both about...Paul, <br /><br />I agree that Storms 1 and 2 are both about unsustainable trade imbalances, really. But Storm 3 is not. Demographic changes in the northern hemisphere are mainly to do with cultural shifts as poverty reduces and education improves - particularly regarding the status and role of women, though this is an unpopular thing to say. <br /><br />There is a Storm 4, of course. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-82673060738563294282012-09-21T23:45:04.672+01:002012-09-21T23:45:04.672+01:00Frances: to me the storms you discuss are all due ...Frances: to me the storms you discuss are all due to the unsustainability of current trade imbalances. These imbalances have been allowed to persist and worsten by the sophistication of the financial system and by the Euro.<br /><br />The rich countries are going to have to consume a smaller proportion of the world's resources. The adjustment is painful.<br /><br />Meanwhile, there's the terrifying possibility of ecological collapse.PaulBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16861432701458977844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-72128006871231375982012-09-21T23:06:48.906+01:002012-09-21T23:06:48.906+01:00Hello Frances;
Just out of curiosity, as a citize...Hello Frances;<br /><br />Just out of curiosity, as a citizen of Great Britain, are you familiar with the writings<br />of one of your great scientists, Frederic Soddy, an associate of Rutherford and a <br />recipient of a Nobel Prize in Chemistry? (ca. 1922, if memory serves) Like you he<br />developed a serious interest in the economy, and wrote a great deal on the subject.<br />His most famous work is entitled, "Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt". He is considered<br />to be a founder of environmental economics, and the volume in question is freely<br />available online. Have a look if the spirit moves you.<br /><br />Regarding population demographics, much depends on whether you take the view,<br />as Soddy did, that resources are, in the end finite, or whether you subscribe to the<br />"cornucopian" view that we will always find a way to grow within the finite envelope.<br />If the former is true, then the only question is when, by whatever means, society <br />finds a way to live within its' total available energy inputs. At some point, the pig <br />must pass down the python, and this can, but does not inevitably have to be<br />disruptive. At the very least, old ways of doing things will have to change. <br />Much to think about! Cheers.<br /> <br /><br /><br /><br />Wolandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06562438726763165471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-27448551563576417822012-09-21T21:43:00.256+01:002012-09-21T21:43:00.256+01:00Oh, great piece! Very scaryOh, great piece! Very scarythickerthantalkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16604534746959098352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-76092964030192123842012-09-21T21:41:36.710+01:002012-09-21T21:41:36.710+01:00Don't ignore that China's demographic prob...Don't ignore that China's demographic problem is a result of the imposition of the savage & appalling One Child Policy- a policy the direct result of the impoverishment of China by idiotic Communism.<br /><br />US & European crash was a direct result of massive credit expansion complicated in US case by the insane "equality" policies imposed on US banks, Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae. Europe was complicated by the adoption of a currency union in a non-optimal currency area. <br />Ireland increased bank lending from the major 6 banks from €120b to €400b between 2000 to 2006; and 80% of this new lending was for domestic construction. <br /> thickerthantalkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16604534746959098352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-75940420565636103272012-09-21T15:50:07.935+01:002012-09-21T15:50:07.935+01:00The Limits to Growth, authored by the Club of Rome...The Limits to Growth, authored by the Club of Rome in 1974, extrapolated these problems to crystallise into catastrophe mid 21st century.<br /><br />Exponential growth in pollution, inflation, and population were the main issues they identified if my memory serves me right, with the prospect of war over ever decreasing resources.<br /><br />Perhaps we should rely on Tim Worstall and his friends at the Adam Smith Institute to solve the economic problems? Or James Delingpole to solve the environmental impacts? <br /><br />No? I thought not.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com