tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post4281694217245538295..comments2024-03-29T10:48:38.142+00:00Comments on Coppola Comment: Robots and the future of workFrances Coppolahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-77672011701474674972014-06-20T11:17:04.198+01:002014-06-20T11:17:04.198+01:00> "we face a period of ugly and cynical to...> "we face a period of ugly and cynical top-down-initiated divisiveness"<br /><br />I think you're right, but it's a bit ironic in that the bottom will probably suffer at least as much as the top from a basic income, at least in the short term. BI is supposed to replace all existing benefits, but there's no way it could possibly cover the vast sums of housing benefit being paid out in places like London. If you thought the uproar over the bedroom tax was bad, the uproar over the effective mass eviction that would ensue will be much, much worse.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16102244520216077792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-66300039696677581052014-06-20T08:30:14.856+01:002014-06-20T08:30:14.856+01:00Then maybe developing social skills and empathy wi...Then maybe developing social skills and empathy will be the key job of educators in the future. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-24706059198684161982014-06-20T08:28:37.628+01:002014-06-20T08:28:37.628+01:00I think your notion of "caring" is rathe...I think your notion of "caring" is rather narrower than mine. I did say in the post that caring for physical needs should be automated - indeed I have written about this before in relation to elderly care (see my post "In the countries of the old" on this site). But "caring" means much more than that. The "gentlewoman's companion" of old worked in a caring role, but she did not do physical work - that was the job of maidservants. Her job was to provide human companionship. And that, I submit, a robot cannot do. I suppose, in some kind of Asimov future, we could have robots with whom you can have a civilised conversation and a shared joke, so the "companion" of the far distant future might be a R. Daneel Olivaw. But that raises far bigger ethical questions, since for a robot to be a really effective human companion it would probably have to be sentient. We are still a very long way from that. <br /><br />I agree with you about basic income. Indeed the entire panel from the book launch agrees with you, and the American economist Noah Smith in the book suggested not only a basic income but a universal capital inheritance, too. I also agree that we are a long way from political acceptance of either of these - indeed in the introduction to the book Stian Westlake points that out. But that doesn't mean we should give up. Radical social and political change is needed. Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-58866848685361697222014-06-20T08:16:55.825+01:002014-06-20T08:16:55.825+01:00This is, of course, a seven-minute speech, so it&#...This is, of course, a seven-minute speech, so it's hardly exhaustive. My chapter in the book discusses the nature of work in a robot economy at some length, and indeed I have done so previously on this site. I don't accept that people are useless, but I have also discussed in previous posts both on this site and at Pieria the question of how people can live and how wealth should be distributed in a robot economy - though I haven't finished with this subject by any means. But yes, this is a vision. If we don't articulate the vision, how can there be hope?Frances Coppolahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399390283774592713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-41672354694423827162014-06-20T07:47:07.960+01:002014-06-20T07:47:07.960+01:00Unusually rosy-visioned for you, FC. I think the d...Unusually rosy-visioned for you, FC. I think the debate will turn to "What is PROPER work?" and "How should we share the wealth (and why should we, anyway)?" and "What are we going to do with all those useless people?" The current angle is to demonise and persecute the benefit class. Unless the political-business class is converted to your vision we face a period of ugly and cynical top-down-initiated divisiveness.Sackersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17284329249862764601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-2566569804303913912014-06-20T00:49:29.013+01:002014-06-20T00:49:29.013+01:00I'm deeply, deeply unconvinced by the "wh...I'm deeply, deeply unconvinced by the "what jobs there will be in 50 years time that don't exist now" line of argument. Yes, I'm sure there'll be some. I don't believe for a second that there'll be anywhere near enough to go around. What's different this time is not just the ever-rising bar that humans need to clear to compete with machines,but the sheer <i>rate</i> of change - new jobs will likely be automated faster than people can retrain for them.<br /><br />There's a lot of merit to your shift toward caring jobs, but even that isn't a given. I think you vastly underestimate the extent to which humans can feel empathy with nonhumans. No, it's not "real", but that's not really the point. A cartoon deer isn't real, but millions of people sobbed themselves silly at screenings of 'Bambi'. And robotic carers may not be anywhere near as effective as good human carers, but they could easily be a lot better than bad human carers. No neglect, no loss of privacy or dignity, no abuse. Japan in particular, with its ageing population and antipathy to immigrant labour, is investing heavily in this area; I wouldn't bet against them.<br /><br />More generally, I think that the only hope for a non-dystopian future lies in some form of basic income. What scares me is that I can't see any route to get there that doesn't involve wholly implausible levels of selfless philanthropy on the part of our current economic masters.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16102244520216077792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8764541874043694159.post-90144455449419155452014-06-19T23:17:38.602+01:002014-06-19T23:17:38.602+01:00There is one problem with all this, which is that ...There is one problem with all this, which is that if humans retain the caring jobs, then a lot of caring jobs will be done by people who actually don't have all that much empathy or insight into other human beings. I am not so sure I want to be surrounded by "caring" people who are just over-blown social workers bent on "helping" me achieve whatever the then current PC lifestyle is.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.com