In an economy where the money supply depends on the production of debt, deflation can never be a good thing. In fact as any cyclist can tell you, deflation means you aren't going anywhere.
Not on topic to your post: but I have a question. Why is it that government interest payments as a percent of GDP are not quoted as a figure for understanding the effects of debt levels (flow vs flow scenerio). And why do we not see popularly discussed any theories about why this value may change over time (its velocity)?
Maybe you'll say such a figure is unimportant (I have no idea myself). But I think it would be a lot easier for the public to understand, and to frame policy choices about, than the popular debt/gdp framework that has provoked much unenlightened discussion.
I prefer to compare interest cost to gdp, rather than debt/gdp. As you say, it is better to compare like with like. Debt/gdp compares stocks and flows and therefore needs to used with caution, I would say.
Regarding the problem of deflation increasing the value of outstanding debts. Hypothetically that could be overcome if the credit system was changed and so the value of the debt was constantly recalculated by factoring in the inflation rate, if in reality the money supply effect on prices could really be measured accurately enough to do that though.
considering your post would you agree that paying off debt increases the value of money, and so not paying off debt decreases the value of money the value of money, and so defaults on debt are inflationary.
No, I would not. Defaulted debts are written off and therefore destroy money in exactly the same way as if they were paid off. In effect, the lender pays the debt from profits. The effect is therefore contractionary. Additionally, widespread debt default destroys the value of assets, and that also has a contractionary effect - see Irving Fisher on this.
I haven't written a post about WASPI for a very long time. I felt I had said everything I wanted to say, and it had become evident that the WASPI campaign and its offshoots had neither the widespread support nor the legal arguments that they claimed. Labour's proposed £58bn payment to WASPI women contributed to its disastrous defeat at the 2019 General Election. And in 2020, the hardline Back to 60 group's bid to overturn their state pension age rises failed in the Court of Appeal. The Government had no intention of compensating WASPI women for their lost pensions, and there was neither legal nor political means to force it to do so. The campaign seemed, in short, dead in the water. But it seems it isn't, quite. Some years ago, WASPI campaign received legal advice that a challenge to the legislation would almost certainly fail but that there might be a case for maladministration on the part of the DWP. Women would have to make individual maladministration claims and
Dear friends, this is my last post on this site. Coppola Comment has moved to Substack. You can find the new site here . Why the move? Well, Blogger has become increasingly difficult to use. The code generator is buggy and I constantly have to mess around with the HTML to make posts look half decent. I don't have the time for this nonsense. I just need a nice straightforward CMS that doesn't make my life difficult. Also, those of you who subscribed by email will know that for some time now you have not been receiving email notifications. This is because Google turned off Feedburner. Google helpfully said I could download the email list and do notifications myself using something like mailchimp, but I don't have the time for this, either. I want a platform that manages my subscribers and notifications for me. I did consider moving to Wordpress, but I've never really got on with that (it's why I used Blogger). And I also considered Patreon for the subscriber side.
As the world reeled in shock at the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), another bank quietly went under. On Sunday 12th March, the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve and FDIC announced that all SVB depositors, whether insured or not, would have access to their funds from Monday. And then they added: We are also announcing a similar systemic risk exception for Signature Bank, New York, which was closed today by its state chartering authority. Signature Bank NY's state chartering authority was the New York State Department of Financial Services (NY DFS). It posted this on its website : On Sunday, March 12, 2023, the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) took possession of Signature Bank in order to protect depositors. All depositors will be made whole. DFS has appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver, and the FDIC has transferred all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of Signature Bank to Signature Bridge B
Not on topic to your post: but I have a question. Why is it that government interest payments as a percent of GDP are not quoted as a figure for understanding the effects of debt levels (flow vs flow scenerio). And why do we not see popularly discussed any theories about why this value may change over time (its velocity)?
ReplyDeleteMaybe you'll say such a figure is unimportant (I have no idea myself). But I think it would be a lot easier for the public to understand, and to frame policy choices about, than the popular debt/gdp framework that has provoked much unenlightened discussion.
I prefer to compare interest cost to gdp, rather than debt/gdp. As you say, it is better to compare like with like. Debt/gdp compares stocks and flows and therefore needs to used with caution, I would say.
DeleteRegarding the problem of deflation increasing the value of outstanding debts. Hypothetically that could be overcome if the credit system was changed and so the value of the debt was constantly recalculated by factoring in the inflation rate, if in reality the money supply effect on prices could really be measured accurately enough to do that though.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete> Frances
considering your post would you agree that paying off debt increases the value of money, and so not paying off debt decreases the value of money the value of money, and so defaults on debt are inflationary.
No, I would not. Defaulted debts are written off and therefore destroy money in exactly the same way as if they were paid off. In effect, the lender pays the debt from profits. The effect is therefore contractionary. Additionally, widespread debt default destroys the value of assets, and that also has a contractionary effect - see Irving Fisher on this.
DeleteSo those debts are paid from commercial lender profits. If however the Central bank is the Lender, how is that scenario handled.
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